A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the country and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. They composes two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
