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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward script. It often functions as a kind of apology. We regret we got wrong your team in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the biggest improvement wins the award. However, it fuels an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent coaching or merely the most shocking surprise.

But the latest race is fundamentally unique. The list of nominees is exceptionally talented. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been messy, with recent division champions fading and longtime strugglers improving collectively. During an normal year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in such a wild and entertaining year, he's competing with several other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the ideal vote should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. In the right system, Williams has been afforded the chance to showcase his otherworldly ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's consistent performance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an attack constructed entirely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that frees wide-open receivers everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been capable to create magic out of broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Virtually every decision – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the organization with the level of pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive dork but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

In a ordinary season, Johnson would be the runaway choice. But the current is not a typical season!

The area where Johnson's case comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are famously fickle. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is established for sustained success. But Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar position to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has masterminded a swift resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has nailed the off-field stuff, which wasn't a certainty after his initial public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching blend of new ideas and experience, he hired newbies. From the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. But Coen has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a risk that the season would go off the rails. A midseason collapse had the team stumbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking consistent ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off after that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him only a single spot ahead of peers.

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